Fact Check: Chancellor Merz's Claims on Violence Against Women and Immigration

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has once again sparked a heated political debate by drawing a connection between violence against women and immigration. During a Bundestag session on March 25, 2026, Merz addressed the issue of gender-based violence, claiming that society is witnessing an "exploding" rate of violence in both analog and digital spaces, and asserted that a "significant portion of this violence comes from immigrant groups."

The Spark of the Debate

The recent parliamentary discussion was heavily influenced by the highly publicized case of actress Collien Fernandes, who accused her ex-husband of generating and distributing pornographic deepfakes of her online. While the ex-husband's legal team firmly denied these allegations, the incident brought the growing problem of digital sexual violence to the forefront of national discourse. Merz used this platform to highlight broader security concerns, echoing his controversial remarks from last autumn when he linked "problems in the cityscape" to migration, famously telling critics to "ask your daughters."

Fact-Checking the "Exploding Violence" Claim

Is violence against women actually exploding in Germany? An analysis of the latest data from the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) indicates that the Chancellor's premise regarding rising violence is factually accurate, particularly concerning crimes predominantly affecting women.

• Sexual Offenses: The number of suspects rose significantly from 29,424 in 2020 to 37,881 in 2024, representing a 28.7% increase.
• Digital Violence: The most drastic spike was recorded in online violence. In 2024, authorities registered 14,130 suspects—a massive 122.1% surge compared to 2020.
• Domestic Violence & Trafficking: Suspects in domestic violence cases increased by 12.8%, while those involved in human trafficking for sexual exploitation rose by 8.4% over the same four-year period.
• Homicides: While 2024 saw an 8.4% drop in homicide suspects compared to the previous year, the five-year trend remains relatively stable, fluctuating between 746 and 853 suspects annually.

The Dark Figure and Societal Shifts

Despite the clear upward trend in official statistics, experts urge caution in interpreting the data. Katharina Schüller, a board member of the German Statistical Society, emphasizes that BKA statistics only reflect reported crimes. "There is a massive dark figure of unreported cases," Schüller explains, noting that data from women's shelters could provide a more comprehensive picture.

Furthermore, criminologist Susanne Karstedt points to a societal "backlash" effect. As society progresses toward gender equality and awareness of domestic violence increases, more women are empowered to report these crimes to the police. Therefore, the statistical surge may partly reflect an increased willingness to report rather than just a pure increase in violent acts.