KIIS Poll: Few Ukrainians Expect War to End Soon, 61% Reject Donbas Pullout

Most Ukrainians expect the war to last a long time, but are prepared to endure it, according to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted on October 8–16. Only one in 10 expects the war to end by the end of this year.

How long will the war last

Just 10% of respondents expect the war to end this year and another 13% expect it to end at least in the first half of 2027. By contrast, 56% expect it to end in the second half of 2027 or later, while 21% have no firm view.

On endurance, 62% said they are ready to endure as long as necessary and 4% for one year. Another 21% named a shorter period, from several months to half a year, and 13% were undecided. KIIS notes the figures are unchanged since mid-September.

Donbas for security guarantees

A separate KIIS finding: 61% consider it categorically unacceptable to hand all of Donbas to Russian control in exchange for security guarantees from the US and Europe. Some 35% are ready for such a concession, though most of them admit it would be a hard condition, and 4% could not decide. There is no statistically significant change since late July–early August.

KIIS compared respondents surveyed on October 8–9, before the “diesel deal” between the US and Russia, with those surveyed on October 10–16. Readiness to endure as long as needed rose from 60% to 63%, and categorical rejection of the Donbas withdrawal from 57% to 62%. Both shifts are within the margin of error, but the sociologists say the pressure campaign has not demoralised Ukrainians so far.

Methodology

The survey was done by telephone interviews with a random sample of mobile numbers in all regions of Ukraine under government control, covering 1,031 adults. It excluded territories not controlled by Kyiv and citizens who left the country after February 24, 2022. See more in Politics; earlier, another KIIS poll found 77% back armed resistance.