Following the initiation of military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28, global transit routes have experienced a profound shift. International flight paths on traditionally busy East-West routes have been abruptly funneled into a narrow corridor over the South Caucasus. This realignment in the skies mirrors a rapidly accelerating reality on the ground: the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, widely known as the "Middle Corridor," has become a critical lifeline for global trade.
The conflict in Iran has severely disrupted conventional energy and trade arteries. Tehran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has choked off a route responsible for transporting roughly 20 percent of globally traded oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Simultaneously, the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen continues to disrupt shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, a corridor that normally handles 12 percent of global trade. Shipping companies forced to reroute via the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa face transit delays of more than ten days.
"For the region, the crisis also holds opportunities," noted Richard Giragosian, Director of the Regional Studies Center in Yerevan, Armenia. "The Middle Corridor is now the only remaining route, the only viable path for trade and transport."
Connecting Europe to China via Central Asia and the South Caucasus—bypassing both Iran and Russia—the Middle Corridor is currently the shortest geographic link between the two economic powerhouses. Both the European Union and China have pledged billions in infrastructure investments to upgrade ports, railways, and roads along this vital artery. Since 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, freight volume on the route has quadrupled. The World Bank projects that by 2030, the corridor could handle up to 11 million tons of cargo.
The geopolitical shift is poised to deliver exceptional economic benefits to transit nations, particularly Azerbaijan. Surging oil prices driven by the Iran conflict could inject an estimated $500 million to $600 million in additional monthly export revenues into the Azerbaijani economy.
Hikmet Hajiyev, chief foreign policy advisor to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, told Euronews that Baku is prepared to increase natural gas exports to compensate for shortfalls from the Gulf region. Currently, Europe sources about 4 percent of its natural gas (12.8 billion cubic meters) from Azerbaijan, with plans to expand this to 20 billion cubic meters by 2027.
While the economic prospects are lucrative, regional experts warn of underlying fragility. "For the Middle Corridor to be successful, there must be stable conditions from China to the European Union and throughout the South Caucasus," explained Kornely Kakachia, a political science professor in Tbilisi. He added that in the medium to long term, the South Caucasus will evolve into a primary artery connecting the EU and China, significantly elevating the transit status of Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia.
Despite officially maintaining neutrality in the Iran conflict, the South Caucasus nations face a delicate diplomatic tightrope. Iran has historically criticized Azerbaijan's robust economic and military ties with Israel. In 2025, Israel imported 46.4 percent of its oil from Azerbaijan via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, while Baku relies heavily on Israeli military equipment.
"Iran has always seen Azerbaijan's increasingly close ties with Israel as a threat," stated Mahammad Mammadov of the Topchubashov Center in Baku. "On the other hand, relations between Azerbaijan and Iran have also become closer in recent years. Both sides have tried to separate the different areas from each other." As the conflict unfolds, the region must navigate these historical tensions to secure its newfound role as the linchpin of Eurasian trade.
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