Morocco and Algeria: A Deep Rivalry Behind the Ceuta Crisis

On July 20, 2026, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez visited Algeria for talks with President Abdelmadjid Tebboune. Within days, tens of thousands of migrants surged to the border of Ceuta, a Spanish enclave on Morocco's northern coast. The proximity of the two events has fuelled intense debate about whether Rabat orchestrated the crisis as retaliation — and shone new light on one of North Africa's most enduring geopolitical rivalries.

Western Sahara: the epicentre of the rivalry

The Morocco-Algeria rivalry has its roots in the Western Sahara dispute, which began when Spain withdrew from the territory in 1975. Morocco claims the region as an integral part of its territory; Algeria backs the Polisario Front independence movement. Spanish research network UNISCI describes the conflict as having evolved into a battle for Maghreb regional hegemony, in which each side perceives the other's gains as a strategic threat.

"The Western Sahara conflict has become a fight for regional hegemony in the Maghreb, and a compromise grows ever more difficult." — UNISCI analysis

A security dilemma that blocks regional integration

The International Crisis Group describes the Morocco-Algeria relationship as a classic security dilemma: both states view their own military and foreign-policy moves as defensive, while seeing the other's as threatening — generating a spiral of rearmament and mutual distrust. Both countries have significantly increased military spending. The Arab Maghreb Union, designed to integrate the region economically, has been effectively paralysed for decades by the bilateral dispute, denying North Africa significant economic potential.

The 2020 Morocco-Israel normalisation and its aftermath

In 2020, Morocco normalised relations with Israel; Israel in turn recognised Morocco's claims over Western Sahara. Algeria viewed Israel's increasingly close ties with Morocco as a security threat, deepening the rift. Both countries now compete for influence with European partners: Morocco positions itself as a partner in migration management, counterterrorism, and economic cooperation; Algeria emphasises its role as an energy supplier and security actor in the Sahel. EU relations have themselves become a new theatre of the rivalry.