Reuters: Trump's Midterm Calculations Muddle US Policy on Ukraine
The clue to President Donald Trump’s shifting course on the war in Ukraine, and to his warmth toward Russia’s Vladimir Putin, may lie in the U.S. midterm elections in November, Reuters wrote in an analysis.
A change of tone
Over the past month Trump has quite openly changed course on a key policy issue: after criticizing Putin, he began showing him favor. “What explains this about-face? A clue may lie in the midterm elections in November,” Reuters wrote. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, whom the agency calls Washington’s “most revered ally” in wartime, has found himself in the crossfire of American campaign politics, with Trump pressing him ever harder to make a peace deal with Putin.
“As American voters grow increasingly unhappy with high energy prices and the cost of living, Trump in recent days has again turned his attention to the war in Ukraine, arguing that a negotiated settlement could help ease economic pressure at home, even though American consumers are unlikely to feel the effects of any peace deal before the November 3 vote,” the publication says. Trump has said the war may be closer to ending than ever and that he wants the death and destruction to stop. Reuters suggests he may also hope a settlement of the four-year conflict could ease pressure on the U.S. economy, voters’ wallets and his own political prospects.
Concessions to Moscow
Russia is a major oil supplier and has not ruled out a broad economic pact with Washington. In recent weeks Trump struck a deal with Putin, temporarily easing U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel (and lifting others) in exchange for Moscow supplying more diesel to world markets. He is considering a meeting next month with Putin and China’s Xi Jinping without Zelensky. Kyiv, meanwhile, has complained that SpaceX’s satellite system stopped working after being installed on high-speed drones, limiting its ability to strike Russian targets and defend itself (see our report on the Starshield dispute).
Reuters wrote: “These moves signal a departure from Trump’s earlier critical stance toward Putin and a return to more strained relations between the U.S. and Ukrainian leaders. Ukraine and several European allies have voiced concern about Trump’s apparent turnaround.”
Blame for diesel prices
Trump blamed Ukraine’s attacks on Russian refineries for rising global diesel prices and hinted that Ukraine needs a new leader. “Russia, frankly, is treating Ukraine okay,” he said at the White House on Monday. Later Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff called Putin a “humanist” for releasing a retired American teacher who had been held in Russia since 2022.
Reuters notes that Ukrainian attacks did contribute to higher diesel prices, but market analysts attribute most of the increase to supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a consequence of another war — the U.S. war against Iran. Trump would not be the first politician to shift blame for inflation abroad: his Democratic predecessor Joe Biden pointed at Putin before the 2022 congressional elections after Russia’s invasion sent gasoline prices soaring.
Voters are not buying such arguments, the publication says. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found about 78% of Americans believe his policies are at least partly to blame for rising prices, and most Republicans and Democrats named the cost of living as their top concern. On Monday Zelensky told visiting American lawmakers that recent “decisions from the American side… are hard to explain.” He has said he believes Trump can help end Russia’s war if he changes his rhetoric toward Putin.