Russia's Hybrid Threat to Germany: How Serious Is It?
German security officials are increasingly sounding the alarm over Russia's hybrid warfare targeting Germany. Domestic intelligence chief Sinan Selen described covert Russian attacks and destabilisation operations against Germany and other European states as "not a temporary development, but a long-term hybrid assault."
Threat Will Outlast Ukraine War
According to Selen, the threat will not disappear even if the Ukraine war ends. Russia, he said, seeks a "complete remapping of Europe" and its own role within it. Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt echoed this assessment: "Our country is not at war, but we are a daily target of hybrid warfare."
Conventional War Possible by 2029
Assessments from military experts, European intelligence agencies and the German Defence Ministry converge on a stark timeline: by 2029, Russia will have the personnel and equipment for a conventional war against NATO. Moscow's defence industry is running at full capacity, and the Kremlin plans to expand its armed forces to 1.5 million soldiers.
Leipzig Airport Bombing Attempt
A failed explosive drone attack on Ukrainian transport aircraft at Leipzig-Halle Airport in August underscored the real-world risk. Security expert Nico Lange said it was "sheer luck" the device did not detonate — Germany had played no active role in stopping it. The German government subsequently attributed the attack to Russia.
Germany Unprepared, Experts Warn
Analyst Stefan Meister of the German Council on Foreign Relations was blunt: Germany is "not well prepared militarily, not in the civilian domain, and the population is not mentally prepared." He warned of a coming surge in drone provocations and infrastructure attacks. The Bundeswehr is being modernised but struggles to recruit enough soldiers, and public resistance to a return of conscription remains strong.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has repeatedly pledged continued support for Ukraine, arguing it is directly linked to Germany's own security. But growing political pressure from the far-right AfD and the left-populist BSW to cut Ukraine aid complicates the picture.