Ukraine Nearly Out of F-16 Missiles to Intercept Russian Drones

Ukraine has nearly exhausted its stockpile of American-made AIM-120 and AIM-9 air-to-air missiles used by F-16 fighter jets to intercept Russian cruise missiles and the newer high-speed jet drones, according to a report by The Economist.

The shortfall comes as Russia has scaled up production of its Geran-4 and Geran-5 jet-propelled drones, which fly at speeds of up to 600 km/h. Russian factories are churning out around 3,000 of these drones per month, with turbofan engines sourced primarily from China and partly from 3D printers operating on smuggled Western components inside Russia.

Patriot missiles also nearly depleted

The missile shortage extends beyond F-16 ammunition. Ukraine's reserves of PAC-3 interceptors for its Patriot air-defense systems are also nearly gone. New large-scale deliveries from the United States are considered unlikely in the near term, as American stockpiles have been heavily drawn down by the ongoing war with Iran.

Meanwhile, Russia has ramped up ballistic missile production to approximately 100 per month — roughly 60 Iskander-M and 40 RM-48U missiles — increasing the pressure on Ukrainian air defenses.

European alternatives and the Freyja program

Some relief may come from Europe. Several older Franco-Italian SAMP/T air-defense batteries along with Aster missiles are expected to be transferred to Ukraine by the end of 2026, and eight next-generation SAMP/T NG systems are slated for 2027. The Aster missile costs less than half the approximately $7 million price tag of the latest PAC-3 export variant and, according to French military sources, matches or exceeds Patriot performance in certain scenarios.

The more transformative solution is the joint European-Ukrainian Freyja anti-ballistic program. Built around Ukraine's FP-7 short-range ballistic missile as a kinetic interceptor, the system will integrate sensors and guidance components from 12 European defense companies — including France's Thales, Italy's Leonardo, Germany's Diehl, and Sweden's Saab — working to NATO radar and data-link standards.