Zelensky Prepares for Extended Conflict Amid Parliamentary Crisis and U.S. Pressure to Cede Donbas

Ukraine is bracing for a potential three-year extension of the war as diplomatic negotiations stall and internal political friction threatens vital international aid. Facing an increasingly assertive U.S. stance and a paralyzed parliament, President Volodymyr Zelensky is navigating one of the most precarious phases of the conflict.

Parliamentary Gridlock and the "Three-Year" Plan

The internal crisis became glaringly apparent during a recent presidential meeting. Andriy Motovylovets, the usually reserved first deputy head of the "Servant of the People" faction, delivered a stark warning: "The Rada is broken! There are no votes." This revelation stunned attendees, as pending legislation is crucial for securing financial assistance from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Ukraine Facility Plan. The warning materialized during the March 10–13 plenary week when lawmakers failed to pass a critical IMF benchmark bill.

In response to the legislative paralysis and an uncertain diplomatic landscape, Zelensky has reportedly tasked Motovylovets with drafting a parliamentary strategy based on the assumption that the war could last "three more years." This timeline directly coincides with the remainder of U.S. President Donald Trump's term, suggesting Kyiv believes a diplomatic resolution will either be forced immediately or delayed until a new U.S. administration takes office. Furthermore, the Cabinet of Ministers is facing internal skepticism, with lawmakers dismissively referring to government officials as mere "graduate students" due to perceived incompetence.

An Endless Soap Opera: The Stalled Peace Talks

On the international front, the trilateral negotiation process has ground to a halt, heavily impacted by the recent U.S. military operation against Iran. President Zelensky has likened the repetitive and fruitless diplomatic meetings to the endless television soap opera "Santa Barbara." However, the stakes are existential: if the diplomatic dialogue collapses completely, Ukraine risks losing U.S. assistance entirely.

The dynamics of the Ukrainian negotiating team shifted significantly following the dismissal of Andriy Yermak and the appointment of Kyrylo Budanov as the Head of the Presidential Office. Despite the new leadership, Kyiv struggles to counter the geopolitical framework established during the summer summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska.

The "Spirit of Anchorage" and U.S. Ultimatum

The current diplomatic push, rooted in the autumn "Dmitriev-Witkoff plan," hinges almost entirely on a single demand: Ukraine's withdrawal from the unoccupied territories of the Donetsk region. According to a member of Zelensky's team familiar with the talks, the U.S. is heavily pushing the Russian-agreed agenda.

"It's as if there are three sides at the meetings, but Ukraine is constantly debating with this Anchorage," the source noted with frustration. "No matter what is discussed, it always comes down to the Americans saying something like: 'Withdraw from Donbas, and we will build a paradise for you, as agreed in Alaska.'"

Other negotiation tracks, such as energy and humanitarian issues, are largely superficial, designed to create an illusion of progress. Washington appears to have shifted from a staunch ally to a transactional mediator, reportedly utilizing leverage—including threats to halt intelligence sharing and weapons sales—to force Ukraine into trading territory for security guarantees and reconstruction funds. For Zelensky's administration, navigating the military and political implications of this American-Russian plan remains a monumental hurdle.