Evening Briefing — October 3

Ukraine's Operation Vivaldi reached a landmark milestone on October 3 as President Zelensky confirmed the counter-offensive has liberated between 125 and 140 square kilometres in northern Donetsk region. Zelensky credited the success partly to a delayed launch that allowed better preparation, and noted that Russian monthly casualties have surged from around 30,000 at the start of the year to 42,000 during the current offensive phase. The war's wider context darkened with a Russian drone strike on civilian vehicles in the Kharkiv region, killing and wounding residents travelling by car. The attack drew sharp condemnation from Ukrainian officials, who vowed to intensify their own pressure on Russia. Zelensky separately announced that Ukraine would step up precision strikes on Russian oil refineries in response to continued terror against the civilian population, while adding that the domestically developed FP-9 ballistic missile, capable of reaching Moscow, is expected to be combat-ready this autumn. On the diplomatic front, Zelensky urged American leaders not to overlook their overwhelming leverage in any future negotiations with Moscow, saying the United States is a hundred times stronger than Russia. Meanwhile in Germany, a new poll showed the far-right AfD reaching 30 percent national support for the first time, overtaking the ruling CDU/CSU and raising concerns among European partners about the continent's political direction. Moldova summoned the Russian ambassador in Chisinau over Kremlin-linked disinformation campaigns timed to influence upcoming parliamentary elections.