AfD Extends Lead Over CDU/CSU as German Trust in Government Crumbles

Germany's far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has pushed further ahead of the governing CDU/CSU coalition in the August Deutschlandtrend poll, deepening a trend that has alarmed mainstream German politics for months. The survey, conducted by infratest-dimap between August 3 and 5 with around 1,300 respondents, captures a German electorate increasingly alienated from the political center.

Shrinking Faith in Government

Only a minority — 12% of respondents — believes that Chancellor Friedrich Merz's recent cabinet reshuffle will result in better governance. The reshuffle saw Thorsten Frei leave his post as head of the chancellery to lead the CDU/CSU parliamentary group; Nina Warken stepped in as the new head of the government's central office. The changes apparently failed to boost public confidence in a government already struggling with low approval ratings.

A broader sense of grievance pervades the country: 43% of all respondents say they constantly feel disadvantaged. Among AfD supporters, that figure rockets to 70%, illustrating why the party's political platform — centered on critiques of migration, mainstream political elites, and what supporters view as cultural displacement — continues to resonate.

Growing Openness to AfD Cooperation

Increasingly, Germans say they would support other parties cooperating with the AfD at least on a case-by-case basis — a shift in attitudes that breaks from the longstanding political "firewall" against the AfD maintained by all major parties. This gradual normalization of the AfD in public discourse presents a structural challenge to German democratic politics.

Terror Fears Reshaped by CSD Attack

The poll also captured the psychological fallout from a July 25 Islamist attack in Berlin, in which a young man drove a rental car into the crowd at the Christopher Street Day parade, killing one woman and seriously injuring 31 people. The attacker was shot by police the following day. The attack jolted German public consciousness: one in three Germans now says they personally fear becoming a victim of terrorism.

A large majority of 70% identifies Islamist terrorism as the greatest security threat — a reversal from a few years ago, when far-right terrorism was consistently ranked by German respondents as the primary danger. The shift reflects both the CSD attack and a broader realignment of public threat perception.