Why Limited War With the US May Suit Iran Better Than Peace

Analysis of Iran's strategic calculus suggests that the country's leadership may actually prefer a state of controlled, limited conflict with the United States rather than either full-scale war or a negotiated peace settlement.

Maintaining a posture of measured hostility allows Iran to mobilise domestic support through nationalist sentiment, deter US military action that could threaten the regime's survival, and preserve its nuclear leverage without triggering the overwhelming response that an all-out assault might provoke.

A negotiated peace, analysts argue, would remove the external enemy that helps unify an otherwise fractious society, while also requiring concessions on nuclear and regional influence that the leadership is unwilling to make. The current cycle of strikes and counter-strikes thus serves Iran's interests in ways that resolution would not.