South Africa Local Elections: ANC Faces Worst Result Amid Xenophobic Violence

South Africa heads toward November 4 municipal elections in a state of deep social tension. The ruling African National Congress — the party of Nelson Mandela — is expected to perform even worse than its historic low of 40.2% in the 2024 national elections. Analyst Fredson Guilengue of the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation says the vote will reflect widespread frustration with the ANC's failure to create jobs, reduce inequality, cut crime, and improve living conditions.

Xenophobic violence shakes the country

A wave of xenophobic attacks since April has left multiple people dead and forced more than 176,000 migrants — mostly from Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Mozambique — to flee the country. At the recent SADC summit in Durban, the far-right militia group March and March rallied against foreign nationals, chanting "Come and take your people back" at neighboring governments. Police dispersed the protests. President Cyril Ramaphosa said he was "concerned and embarrassed" by the treatment of foreign nationals.

Coalition scenarios

With the ANC projected to lose further ground, various coalition options are opening up in South Africa's polarized political landscape. The collapse of basic services — crumbling roads, potholed streets, burst water pipes, and mountains of uncollected garbage — is front and center in the campaign. Unemployment and high crime rates add to the mounting anger that experts say voters are likely to direct against the ANC at the ballot box.