Sachsen-Anhalt Election Could Topple Chancellor Merz as AfD Eyes Majority

Germany's small eastern state of Sachsen-Anhalt, with just 1.6 million eligible voters, holds its state parliament election on Sunday. The result could have profound consequences for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his coalition government in Berlin. Polls showing the partly far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) well ahead of the governing CDU and SPD have fuelled rumours of a Merz resignation — though political scientists doubt he would step down.

AfD Could Win an Outright Majority

An absolute AfD majority in Sachsen-Anhalt, while not certain, is not out of the question according to current polling. Such an outcome would be unprecedented and send shockwaves through the federal government. Carsten Koschmieder, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin, told DW he does not believe Merz would resign: "I do not get the impression he is the kind of person who would step down. He very much wants to be Chancellor and worked toward it for a long time." However, even a short-of-majority but strong AfD result could significantly intensify pressure on Merz within his own party.

Merz's AfD Problem

Before becoming Chancellor in May 2025, Merz had set himself the ambitious goal of halving support for the AfD through a tough migration policy. That goal has not been achieved — and the CDU itself has lost ground. All mainstream parties, including the CDU, SPD, Greens, and others, have categorically ruled out any cooperation with the AfD. But how to contain the party's rise, and how long that firewall can hold, is a question that will become ever more pressing after Sunday's result.