Why AfD Won Big in Saxony-Anhalt: Economy, Security, and Merz Backlash

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) more than doubled its vote share in Saxony-Anhalt's Sunday election, reaching a record 43.8 percent — but the reasons behind the surge may surprise those who assume migration fears are the party's main driver. Exit polling by the infratest dimap institute reveals that immigration ranked surprisingly low as a deciding factor for voters in this eastern German state.

Economic Insecurity, Not Migration, Drove the Vote

Saxony-Anhalt is one of Germany's most economically disadvantaged states, with below-average wages and a persistent shortage of high-skilled jobs. The region has suffered decades of emigration as qualified workers leave for better opportunities. Its foreign-born population stands at around nine percent — well below the national average of roughly 15 percent — meaning immigration anxiety does not match everyday reality for most residents.

Survey data show that social security, peace in Europe and economic policy were voters' primary concerns — even among AfD supporters themselves. This suggests the party's appeal has evolved well beyond its original anti-immigration base.

AfD Trusted Across All Policy Areas

Remarkably, the AfD outscored the CDU on every policy dimension tested, including the economy — traditionally a CDU stronghold. On crime and asylum policy, twice as many respondents said they trusted the AfD to be effective as said the same of the CDU. On future challenges, young voters — often seen as less susceptible to far-right appeals — named the AfD most often as having the best answers.

Some 67 percent of those surveyed said the AfD had better understood that people in Saxony-Anhalt no longer felt safe, and more than half said the party was closer to ordinary citizens' concerns than its rivals. The AfD also made strong gains among workers — nearly two-thirds voted for it — and among the self-employed, where a majority did as well.

Merz Government Acts as a Brake on CDU

A key factor was voter anger at the federal government led by CDU Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Some 59 percent said the federal coalition deserved a rebuke, and 58 percent said they were most angry with Merz's party specifically. Merz's approval rating is at a historic low, and his CDU was largely kept off the campaign trail in Saxony-Anhalt. The party's national governing partners, the SPD, also paid a price, winning only nine percent.

Former Non-Voters Flocked to AfD

Another driver of the surge was the mobilization of former abstainers. The AfD made its largest gains among people who had not voted in the previous election, suggesting it has tapped into a reservoir of disillusionment that other parties have largely failed to reach. The result is the AfD's highest score ever in any German state election and a moment that is likely to reverberate across the country's political landscape.