AfD Leads at 42% Before Saxony-Anhalt Vote in Historic German Election

Germany's Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party is leading polling in Saxony-Anhalt at 42%, with state elections set for September 2026, according to an ARD survey conducted about a week before voting. If the result holds, it would mark a historic moment: for the first time in post-war German history, a party classified as "confirmed right-wing extremist" by the state's Office for the Protection of the Constitution could take charge of a state government.

The State and Its Politics

Saxony-Anhalt is a central German state of about 2.1 million people, home to the cities of Magdeburg and Halle. The state has been governed by the CDU for most of its history since reunification in 1990. The current CDU candidate for minister-president is Sven Schulze, who succeeded Reiner Haseloff after 15 years in office. The CDU trails far behind at just 22% in polls. Other parties show: Die Linke at 11%, SPD at 8%, and the Greens just reaching the 6% threshold needed to enter parliament.

Former Premier Warns of Democratic Rollback

Former CDU Minister-President Reiner Haseloff, who retired in January 2026, caused controversy last year when he told Der Spiegel that he would leave Saxony-Anhalt if the AfD comes to power. He drew parallels between the mood in the Magdeburg parliament and the final phase of the Weimar Republic. Haseloff described the atmosphere he felt during parliamentary sessions as similar to scenes in the Reichstag or the Berlin Sportpalast — where Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels declared "total war" in 1943.

Economic Background

Saxony-Anhalt faces structural economic challenges: the state is largely rural, has higher-than-average unemployment, and is still navigating the transition away from coal mining and its industrial legacy. The chemical industry cluster around Leuna and Bitterfeld provides around 10,000 jobs and remains a significant employer. The southern part of the state faces particular challenges as it reinvents itself following the phase-out of brown coal. The region is also known for its cultural heritage — including Martin Luther's Reformation sites in Wittenberg and Eisleben, and the famous Bauhaus architecture school in Dessau.

The AfD's success in Saxony-Anhalt reflects a broader pattern in eastern German states, where the party consistently outperforms its national polling figures. Despite being classified as partially right-wing extremist by security services, the rating has not translated into electoral penalties at the ballot box.